Willem II Tilburg v Excelsior
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Willem II Tilburg lost to Excelsior 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Aymen Sliti for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Eser Gürbüz for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aymen Sliti | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eric da Silva Moreira | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| David Garden | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eser Gürbüz | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ilano Silva Timas | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thomas Verheydt | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Devin Haen | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jaden Slory | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Uriel van Aalst | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Irakli Yegoian | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Daniel van Vianen | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thomas Verheydt | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kasper Boogaard | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Willem II Tilburg v Excelsior?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Willem II Tilburg v Excelsior?
The most confident call it got wrong was Eser Gürbüz at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.