Willem II Tilburg v FC Utrecht
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Willem II Tilburg lost to FC Utrecht 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Noah Ohio for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Paxten Aaronson for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Ohio | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paxten Aaronson | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sébastien Haller | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Adrian Blake | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| David Min | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jens Toornstra | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jeremy Bokila | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kyan Vaesen | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oscar Fraulo | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Souffian El Karouani | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Zidane Iqbal | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jesse Bosch | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Noah Ohio | shots on target | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mike Van der Hoorn | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Utrecht 3–1 Willem II Tilburg Oct 2026
- FC Utrecht 3–2 Willem II Tilburg Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Willem II Tilburg v FC Utrecht?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Willem II Tilburg v FC Utrecht?
The most confident call it got wrong was Paxten Aaronson at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.