Willem II Tilburg v VVV-Venlo
How the SharpXI model rated this Eredivisie fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Willem II Tilburg beat VVV-Venlo 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Sven Braken for 1+ shots total (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Carl Johansson for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Braken | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nick Venema | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Carl Johansson | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jeremy Bokila | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elton Kabangu | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jizz Hornkamp | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jizz Hornkamp | shots on target | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jeremy Bokila | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elton Kabangu | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kees de Boer | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Soulaïman Allouch | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daan Huisman | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Robert Klaasen | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mitchell van Rooijen | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VVV-Venlo 3–2 Willem II Tilburg May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Willem II Tilburg v VVV-Venlo?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Willem II Tilburg v VVV-Venlo?
The most confident call it got wrong was Carl Johansson at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Eredivisie?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.