Athletic Club v FC Viktoria Plzeň
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Athletic Club beat FC Viktoria Plzeň 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Gorka Guruzeta for 1+ shots total (97%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Álex Berenguer for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Djaló | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gorka Guruzeta | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nico Williams | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Álex Berenguer | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Iñaki Williams | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mikel Jauregizar | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Oihan Sancet | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mikel Vesga | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Óscar de Marcos | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 5 | ✓ |
| Beñat Prados | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Yeray Álvarez | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gorka Guruzeta | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nico Williams | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yuri Berchiche | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls drawn
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Athletic Club v FC Viktoria Plzeň?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Athletic Club v FC Viktoria Plzeň?
The most confident call it got wrong was Álex Berenguer at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.