Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Molde FK
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat Molde FK 5–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Nathan Tella for 1+ shots total (97%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Amine Adli for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nathan Tella | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adam Hložek | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 7 | ✓ |
| Amine Adli | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Amine Adli | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Tella | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gustavo Puerta | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonas Hofmann | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nathan Tella | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Patrik Schick | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Noah Mbamba | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nathan Tella | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Josip Stanišić | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Shots on target Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Molde FK 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Molde FK?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Molde FK?
The most confident call it got wrong was Amine Adli at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.