Celta Vigo v Bologna
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Celta Vigo lost to Bologna 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Jonathan Rowe for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Fran Beltrán for 1+ fouls committed (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
8 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Rowe | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Rowe | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Williot Swedberg | fouls committed | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilaix Moriba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Williot Swedberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giovanni Fabbian | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Emil Holm | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ilaix Moriba | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Borja Iglesias | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Javier Rueda | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fran Beltrán | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carl Starfelt | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nikola Moro | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Celta Vigo v Bologna?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Celta Vigo v Bologna?
The most confident call it got wrong was Fran Beltrán at 86% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.