Celtic v Ferencváros TC
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Celtic lost to Ferencváros TC 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Kieran Tierney for 1+ tackles (85%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Haissem Hassan for 1+ fouls drawn (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haissem Hassan | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mika Baur | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Haissem Hassan | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kieran Tierney | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 5 | ✓ |
| Haissem Hassan | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mika Baur | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Callum O'Dowda | tackles | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mika Baur | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oliver Sørensen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mika Baur | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Haissem Hassan | fouls committed | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Callum O'Dowda | fouls drawn | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oliver Sørensen | tackles | 1+ | 59% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oliver Sørensen | shots total | 1+ | 57% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Tackles Shots total Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Celtic v Ferencváros TC?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Celtic v Ferencváros TC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Haissem Hassan at 92% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.