Fenerbahçe v Nottingham Forest
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Fenerbahçe lost to Nottingham Forest 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Lorenzo Lucca for 1+ fouls committed (92%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Lorenzo Lucca for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Lucca | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolás Domínguez | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lorenzo Lucca | fouls committed | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dan Ndoye | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elliot Anderson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ryan Yates | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Lucca | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Neco Williams | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Elliot Anderson | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Igor Jesus | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ryan Yates | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Igor Jesus | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Nottingham Forest 1–2 Fenerbahçe Feb 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Fenerbahçe v Nottingham Forest?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Fenerbahçe v Nottingham Forest?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lorenzo Lucca at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.