Ferencváros TC v AZ Alkmaar
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Ferencváros TC beat AZ Alkmaar 4–3, the SharpXI model made 13 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Troy Parrott for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Denso Kasius for 1+ tackles (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
8 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Parrott | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Denso Kasius | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Troy Parrott | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Denso Kasius | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Habib Maïga | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Habib Maïga | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Habib Maïga | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Denso Kasius | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 2 | ✓ |
| Habib Maïga | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Troy Parrott | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Troy Parrott | tackles | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Denso Kasius | fouls drawn | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Troy Parrott | shots on target | 1+ | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
| Denso Kasius | shots on target | 1+ | 42% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Ferencváros TC v AZ Alkmaar?
6 of its 13 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Ferencváros TC v AZ Alkmaar?
The most confident call it got wrong was Denso Kasius at 85% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.