Galatasaray v AZ Alkmaar
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Galatasaray drew with AZ Alkmaar 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Victor Osimhen for 1+ shots total (97%, had 7). Its clearest miss: Kerem Demirbay for 1+ shots total (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Osimhen | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 7 | ✓ |
| Roland Sallai | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Sara | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Roland Sallai | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Sara | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Berkan Kutlu | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Denso Kasius | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kerem Demirbay | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Davinson Sánchez | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Sara | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Troy Parrott | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Victor Osimhen | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kerem Demirbay | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Victor Osimhen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AZ Alkmaar 4–1 Galatasaray Feb 2025
- AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Galatasaray Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Galatasaray v AZ Alkmaar?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Galatasaray v AZ Alkmaar?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kerem Demirbay at 83% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.