Lazio v Bodø/Glimt
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lazio beat Bodø/Glimt 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Valentín Castellanos for 1+ shots total (97%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Elseid Hysaj for 1+ tackles (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tijjani Noslin | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Valentín Castellanos | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 6 | ✓ |
| Pedro | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Loum Tchaouna | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gustav Isaksen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mattia Zaccagni | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nicolò Rovella | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mattia Zaccagni | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 6 | ✓ |
| Matías Vecino | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elseid Hysaj | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mario Gila | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 5 | ✓ |
| Manuel Lazzari | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Patrick Berg | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nuno Tavares | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bodø/Glimt 2–0 Lazio Apr 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lazio v Bodø/Glimt?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lazio v Bodø/Glimt?
The most confident call it got wrong was Elseid Hysaj at 85% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.