Levski Sofia v Red Bull Salzburg
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Levski Sofia lost to Red Bull Salzburg 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Yorbe Vertessen for 1+ shots total (97%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Nikolas Veratschnig for 1+ fouls committed (64%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
3 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yorbe Vertessen | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Armstrong Oko-Flex | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Haris Tabaković | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nikolas Veratschnig | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tim Drexler | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Haris Tabaković | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yorbe Vertessen | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yorbe Vertessen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Armstrong Oko-Flex | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Álex Centelles | tackles | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Armstrong Oko-Flex | tackles | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Armstrong Oko-Flex | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tim Drexler | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nikolas Veratschnig | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Levski Sofia v Red Bull Salzburg?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Levski Sofia v Red Bull Salzburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Nikolas Veratschnig at 64% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.