Lille v FK Crvena Zvezda
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lille lost to FK Crvena Zvezda 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Tiago Santos for 1+ fouls drawn (92%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Olivier Giroud for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivier Giroud | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tiago Santos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matías Fernández-Pardo | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gaëtan Perrin | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benjamin André | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Benjamin André | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marko Arnautović | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hakon Arnar Haraldsson | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benjamin André | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Romain Perraud | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nabil Bentaleb | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Félix Correia | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FK Crvena Zvezda 0–2 Lille Feb 2026
- FK Crvena Zvezda 1–0 Lille Nov 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lille v FK Crvena Zvezda?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lille v FK Crvena Zvezda?
The most confident call it got wrong was Olivier Giroud at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.