Liverpool v Atalanta
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Liverpool lost to Atalanta 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Mohamed Salah for 1+ shots total (97%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Cody Gakpo for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin Núñez | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Salah | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marten de Roon | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 5 | ✓ |
| Cody Gakpo | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Éderson | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cody Gakpo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Alexis Mac Allister | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Isak Hien | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gianluca Scamacca | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Wataru Endo | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andy Robertson | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Berat Djimsiti | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Charles De Ketelaere | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Atalanta 0–1 Liverpool Apr 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Liverpool v Atalanta?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Liverpool v Atalanta?
The most confident call it got wrong was Cody Gakpo at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.