Ludogorets v AZ Alkmaar
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Ludogorets drew with AZ Alkmaar 2–2, the SharpXI model made 5 confident calls on the player markets and 2 landed — the strongest being Troy Parrott for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Troy Parrott for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Parrott | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Troy Parrott | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Troy Parrott | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Troy Parrott | tackles | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Troy Parrott | shots on target | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Troy Parrott | cards | — | 19% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles Shots on target Cards
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Ludogorets v AZ Alkmaar?
2 of its 5 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Ludogorets v AZ Alkmaar?
The most confident call it got wrong was Troy Parrott at 84% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.