Raków Częstochowa v SK Sturm Graz
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Raków Częstochowa lost to SK Sturm Graz 0–1, the SharpXI model made 4 confident calls on the player markets and 1 landed — the strongest being Sonny Kittel for 1+ shots total (76%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Sonny Kittel for 1+ fouls drawn (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Kittel | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sonny Kittel | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sonny Kittel | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sonny Kittel | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sonny Kittel | shots on target | 1+ | 46% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sonny Kittel | cards | — | 19% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Shots on target Cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SK Sturm Graz 0–1 Raków Częstochowa Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Raków Częstochowa v SK Sturm Graz?
1 of its 4 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Raków Częstochowa v SK Sturm Graz?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sonny Kittel at 78% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.