Real Sociedad v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Real Sociedad beat AFC Ajax 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Sheraldo Becker for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Aihen Muñoz for 1+ tackles (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheraldo Becker | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ander Barrenetxea | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bertrand Traoré | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Chuba Akpom | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Brais Méndez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Takefusa Kubo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jon Aramburu | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brais Méndez | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brais Méndez | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ander Barrenetxea | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Aihen Muñoz | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ander Barrenetxea | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Martín Zubimendi | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Real Sociedad v AFC Ajax?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Real Sociedad v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Aihen Muñoz at 85% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.