SK Sturm Graz v FK Crvena Zvezda
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SK Sturm Graz lost to FK Crvena Zvezda 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Marko Arnautović for 1+ shots total (85%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Emir Karić for 1+ tackles (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marko Arnautović | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rade Krunić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emir Karić | tackles | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marko Arnautović | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rade Krunić | tackles | 1+ | 68% | 5 | ✓ |
| Rade Krunić | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 2 | ✓ |
| Emir Karić | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marko Arnautović | shots on target | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Miloš Veljković | tackles | 1+ | 59% | 2 | ✓ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | fouls committed | 1+ | 58% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marko Arnautović | fouls committed | 1+ | 55% | 2 | ✓ |
| Miloš Veljković | fouls committed | 1+ | 52% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SK Sturm Graz v FK Crvena Zvezda?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SK Sturm Graz v FK Crvena Zvezda?
The most confident call it got wrong was Emir Karić at 75% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.