Sporting Braga v KRC Genk
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sporting Braga lost to KRC Genk 3–4, the SharpXI model made 11 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being João Moutinho for 1+ tackles (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: João Moutinho for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Moutinho | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Florian Grillitsch | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| João Moutinho | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 7 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Florian Grillitsch | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Florian Grillitsch | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| João Moutinho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| João Moutinho | shots total | 1+ | 51% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots on target | 1+ | 46% | 2 | ✓ |
| Florian Grillitsch | shots total | 1+ | 38% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | cards | — | 19% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn Shots total Shots on target Cards
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sporting Braga v KRC Genk?
7 of its 11 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sporting Braga v KRC Genk?
The most confident call it got wrong was João Moutinho at 81% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.