Villarreal v Olympique de Marseille
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Europa League fixture — every call it made on cards, shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Villarreal beat Olympique de Marseille 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for 1+ shots total (97%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Amine Harit for 1+ fouls drawn (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alexander Sørloth | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Gerard Moreno | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Guedes | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ismaïla Sarr | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amine Harit | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Leonardo Balerdi | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Alex Baena | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Étienne Capoue | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexander Sørloth | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bamo Meïté | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Quentin Merlin | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Azzedine Ounahi | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Villarreal v Olympique de Marseille?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Villarreal v Olympique de Marseille?
The most confident call it got wrong was Amine Harit at 94% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Europa League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.