Austria v Croatia
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Austria lost to Croatia 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Nikola Vlašić for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ante Budimir for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vlašić | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ante Budimir | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Gregoritsch | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marko Arnautović | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Muhammed-Cham Saračević | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Xaver Schlager | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marcel Sabitzer | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Christopher Trimmel | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lovro Majer | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Borna Sosa | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ivan Perišić | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mateo Kovačić | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luka Modrić | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Christoph Baumgartner | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Croatia 0–3 Austria Jun 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Austria v Croatia?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Austria v Croatia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ante Budimir at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.