Bulgaria v Estonia
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bulgaria drew with Estonia 0–0, the SharpXI model made 10 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Lukas Petkov for 1+ shots total (98%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Lukas Petkov for 1+ shots on target (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Petkov | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lukas Petkov | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lukas Petkov | shots on target | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lukas Petkov | tackles | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | tackles | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lukas Petkov | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ilia Gruev | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | fouls committed | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karol Mets | tackles | 1+ | 58% | 1 | ✓ |
| Karol Mets | fouls committed | 1+ | 57% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | fouls drawn | 1+ | 42% | 2 | ✓ |
| Karol Mets | fouls drawn | 1+ | 42% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karol Mets | shots total | 1+ | 38% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ilia Gruev | shots on target | 1+ | 26% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Tackles Fouls committed
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bulgaria v Estonia?
7 of its 10 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bulgaria v Estonia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lukas Petkov at 72% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.