Cyprus v Lithuania
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Cyprus beat Lithuania 2–1, the SharpXI model made 8 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Grigoris Kastanos for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 2). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
3 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grigoris Kastanos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Grigoris Kastanos | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Grigoris Kastanos | tackles | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | tackles | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Grigoris Kastanos | fouls committed | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | shots on target | 1+ | 48% | 1 | ✓ |
| Grigoris Kastanos | shots on target | 1+ | 48% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Lithuania 0–1 Cyprus Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Cyprus v Lithuania?
8 of its 8 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Cyprus v Lithuania?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.