Estonia v Azerbaijan
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Estonia beat Azerbaijan 3–1, the SharpXI model made 2 confident calls on the player markets and 1 landed — the strongest being Karol Mets for 1+ fouls committed (62%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Karol Mets for 1+ tackles (71%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karol Mets | tackles | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karol Mets | fouls committed | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Karol Mets | fouls drawn | 1+ | 42% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karol Mets | shots total | 1+ | 37% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karl Hein | fouls drawn | 1+ | 20% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karol Mets | shots on target | 1+ | 12% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karl Hein | tackles | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karl Hein | shots on target | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karl Hein | shots total | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karl Hein | fouls committed | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Azerbaijan 0–0 Estonia Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Estonia v Azerbaijan?
1 of its 2 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Estonia v Azerbaijan?
The most confident call it got wrong was Karol Mets at 71% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.