Gibraltar v Lithuania
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Gibraltar lost to Lithuania 0–1, the SharpXI model made 5 confident calls on the player markets and 2 landed — the strongest being Gvidas Gineitis for 1+ shots total (87%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Gvidas Gineitis for 1+ tackles (64%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gvidas Gineitis | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | tackles | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | shots on target | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Tackles Fouls drawn Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Lithuania 1–0 Gibraltar Mar 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Gibraltar v Lithuania?
2 of its 5 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Gibraltar v Lithuania?
The most confident call it got wrong was Gvidas Gineitis at 64% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.