Lithuania v Azerbaijan
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lithuania drew with Azerbaijan 1–1, the SharpXI model made 4 confident calls on the player markets and 4 landed — the strongest being Gvidas Gineitis for 1+ tackles (82%, had 2). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
See the full player stats boardPlayer markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gvidas Gineitis | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gvidas Gineitis | shots on target | 1+ | 35% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Azerbaijan 1–0 Lithuania Oct 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lithuania v Azerbaijan?
4 of its 4 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lithuania v Azerbaijan?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.