Netherlands v Bosnia & Herzegovina
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Netherlands beat Bosnia & Herzegovina 5–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Donyell Malen for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Jerdy Schouten for 1+ tackles (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Gakpo | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Edin Džeko | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joshua Zirkzee | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ermedin Demirović | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Xavi Simons | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 7 | ✓ |
| Xavi Simons | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ryan Gravenberch | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jerdy Schouten | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cody Gakpo | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Denis Huseinbašić | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rade Krunić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ermedin Demirović | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Armin Gigović | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 Netherlands Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Netherlands v Bosnia & Herzegovina?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Netherlands v Bosnia & Herzegovina?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jerdy Schouten at 84% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.