North Macedonia v Bulgaria
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before North Macedonia lost to Bulgaria 0–1, the SharpXI model made 10 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Ilia Gruev for 1+ tackles (82%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Eljif Elmas for 1+ shots total (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Gruev | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 6 | ✓ |
| Eljif Elmas | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eljif Elmas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Valentin Antov | tackles | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eljif Elmas | tackles | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | fouls drawn | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eljif Elmas | fouls committed | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Valentin Antov | fouls committed | 1+ | 59% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | shots total | 1+ | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
| Valentin Antov | fouls drawn | 1+ | 42% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eljif Elmas | shots on target | 1+ | 35% | 0 | ✗ |
| Valentin Antov | shots total | 1+ | 32% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stole Dimitrievski | fouls drawn | 1+ | 20% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bulgaria 1–1 North Macedonia Jun 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on North Macedonia v Bulgaria?
7 of its 10 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on North Macedonia v Bulgaria?
The most confident call it got wrong was Eljif Elmas at 78% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.