North Macedonia v Faroe Islands
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before North Macedonia beat Faroe Islands 1–0, the SharpXI model made 10 confident calls on the player markets and 5 landed — the strongest being Bojan Miovski for 1+ shots total (88%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Darko Churlinov for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darko Churlinov | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bojan Miovski | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bojan Miovski | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Darko Churlinov | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bojan Miovski | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 2 | ✓ |
| Darko Churlinov | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Darko Churlinov | fouls committed | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bojan Miovski | shots on target | 1+ | 54% | 1 | ✓ |
| Darko Churlinov | tackles | 1+ | 53% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bojan Miovski | tackles | 1+ | 53% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stole Dimitrievski | fouls drawn | 1+ | 6% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stole Dimitrievski | tackles | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stole Dimitrievski | shots on target | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stole Dimitrievski | shots total | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots on target Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Faroe Islands 1–1 North Macedonia Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on North Macedonia v Faroe Islands?
5 of its 10 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on North Macedonia v Faroe Islands?
The most confident call it got wrong was Darko Churlinov at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.