San Marino v Finland
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before San Marino lost to Finland 0–7, the SharpXI model made 8 confident calls on the player markets and 3 landed — the strongest being Joel Pohjanpalo for 1+ shots total (88%, had 7). Its clearest miss: Leo Walta for 1+ fouls drawn (79%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
See the full player stats boardPlayer markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Pohjanpalo | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 7 | ✓ |
| Leo Walta | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leo Walta | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 5 | ✓ |
| Leo Walta | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joel Pohjanpalo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leo Walta | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joel Pohjanpalo | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joel Pohjanpalo | shots on target | 1+ | 54% | 5 | ✓ |
| Leo Walta | shots on target | 1+ | 48% | 4 | ✓ |
| Joel Pohjanpalo | tackles | 1+ | 37% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on San Marino v Finland?
3 of its 8 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on San Marino v Finland?
The most confident call it got wrong was Leo Walta at 79% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.