Spain v Italy
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Nations League fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Spain beat Italy 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Rodrigo for 1+ shots total (98%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Marco Asensio for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marco Asensio | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Álvaro Morata | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 7 | ✓ |
| Gavi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Álvaro Morata | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Bryan Cristante | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yéremy Pino | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolò Zaniolo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 5 | ✓ |
| Yéremy Pino | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rafael Tolói | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matteo Darmian | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jorginho | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolò Zaniolo | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mikel Merino | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Spain v Italy?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Spain v Italy?
The most confident call it got wrong was Marco Asensio at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Nations League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.