Hellas Verona v Spezia
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hellas Verona lost to Spezia 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Kevin Agudelo for 1+ tackles (97%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Thomas Henry for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Agudelo | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Simone Bastoni | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yayah Kallon | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Simone Verdi | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Thomas Henry | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kevin Lasagna | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Milan Đurić | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emmanuel Gyasi | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| M'bala Nzola | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Daniele Verde | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ethan Ampadu | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Isak Hien | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Miguel Veloso | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Paweł Dawidowicz | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 62% | 6 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 45% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Spezia 1–3 Hellas Verona Jun 2023
- Spezia 0–0 Hellas Verona Mar 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hellas Verona v Spezia?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hellas Verona v Spezia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Thomas Henry at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.