Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Heidenheim
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Darmstadt 98 lost to 1. FC Heidenheim 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Tim Kleindienst for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Nikola Dovedan for 1+ fouls drawn (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kleindienst | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tim Kleindienst | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nikola Dovedan | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nikola Dovedan | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tim Skarke | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oscar Vilhelmsson | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marvin Pieringer | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Denis Thomalla | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marvin Pieringer | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kevin Sessa | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marvin Pieringer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oscar Vilhelmsson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Benedikt Gimber | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 53% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 33% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- 1. FC Heidenheim 3–2 Darmstadt 98 Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Heidenheim?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Heidenheim?
The most confident call it got wrong was Nikola Dovedan at 82% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.