Total shots — modelling a player's shot volume for the bet builder
Total shots (all attempts, on or off target) is a higher-volume cousin of shots on target, so the lines run 1+, 2+ and 3+. SharpXI models each line from a player's underlying shot rate and the opponent's tendency to concede shots.
How SharpXI models it
Same engine as shots on target: a recency-weighted per-90 rate, empirical-Bayes shrinkage for small samples, minutes scaling, an opponent concede-factor, and a Negative Binomial for P(shots ≥ line). Prices are de-vigged with Shin's method.
Go deeper: How we model shot volume →
Where the value tends to sit
Because volume is higher, the distribution is wider — a forward who takes lots of speculative efforts can be strong value at 2+ or 3+ even when 1+ is short.
Bundesliga — how this market behaves
Across 7,923 graded Bundesliga predictions from the 25/26 season, a player recorded 1+ shot in 52.0% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 20.9% here, against Premier League 23.0%, Championship 22.4%, La Liga 22.0%, Serie A 21.7% and Ligue 1 21.3% — the league where total shots are hardest to call. Team goals is this league's weakest market, and its page says so.
Bundesliga leaders this season
In the 25/26 Bundesliga season, Deniz Undav (VfB Stuttgart) leads for total shots at 4.89 per 90, ahead of Harry Kane (4.50) and Conrad Harder (4.11). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (25/26 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav | VfB Stuttgart | 4.89 | 97% |
| Harry Kane | FC Bayern München | 4.50 | 94% |
| Conrad Harder | RB Leipzig | 4.11 | 66% |
| Jamal Musiala | FC Bayern München | 3.94 | 93% |
| Michael Olise | FC Bayern München | 3.92 | 94% |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro | FC Augsburg | 3.70 | 79% |
| Serge Gnabry | FC Bayern München | 3.66 | 86% |
| Said El Mala | 1. FC Köln | 3.45 | 94% |
| Stefan Schimmer | 1. FC Heidenheim | 3.44 | 59% |
| Luca Waldschmidt | 1. FC Köln | 3.42 | 67% |
| Keke Topp | SV Werder Bremen | 3.41 | 65% |
| Nicolas Jackson | FC Bayern München | 3.30 | 74% |
Frequently asked
Does total shots include blocked shots?
It follows the match-data provider's definition of a player's total shots, which includes attempts that are on target, off target and, per the source, blocked.
Why are there three lines for total shots?
Shot volume is high enough that 1+, 2+ and 3+ are all live markets. SharpXI models the probability of each independently rather than assuming a fixed relationship.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.