TSG Hoffenheim v Darmstadt 98
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before TSG Hoffenheim drew with Darmstadt 98 3–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Andrej Kramarić for 1+ shots total (80%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Marius Bülter for 1+ shots total (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Kramarić | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matthias Bader | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Grischa Prömel | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tim Skarke | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 7 | ✓ |
| Robert Skov | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Grischa Prömel | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Andrej Kramarić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marius Bülter | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anton Stach | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ozan Kabak | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ihlas Bebou | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 71% | 6 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Darmstadt 98 0–6 TSG Hoffenheim May 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on TSG Hoffenheim v Darmstadt 98?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on TSG Hoffenheim v Darmstadt 98?
The most confident call it got wrong was Marius Bülter at 75% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.