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Bundesliga · 23/24

TSG Hoffenheim v Darmstadt 98

How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

TSG Hoffenheim3 – 3 Darmstadt 98 19 Dec 2023
11/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before TSG Hoffenheim drew with Darmstadt 98 3–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Andrej Kramarić for 1+ shots total (80%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Marius Bülter for 1+ shots total (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Frank Willenborg refereed this match 4.73cards/game 1.16×vs league 45games
Frank Willenborg's card record →
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Andrej Kramarić shots total 1+ 80% 3
Luca Pfeiffer shots total 1+ 80% 2
Matthias Bader fouls drawn 1+ 77% 3
Grischa Prömel fouls committed 1+ 77% 2
Tim Skarke shots total 1+ 77% 7
Robert Skov shots total 1+ 76% 2
Grischa Prömel fouls drawn 1+ 76% 3
Andrej Kramarić fouls drawn 1+ 76% 1
Marius Bülter shots total 1+ 75% 0
Anton Stach fouls drawn 1+ 74% 2
Ozan Kabak fouls committed 1+ 74% 0
Luca Pfeiffer fouls committed 1+ 74% 2
Luca Pfeiffer fouls drawn 1+ 74% 0
Ihlas Bebou shots total 1+ 74% 3

How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
Match cards O4.5 71% 6 cards
Match goals O2.5 61% 6 goals
BTTS Yes 55% Yes

How these are modelled: Match cards · Match goals

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Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on TSG Hoffenheim v Darmstadt 98?

11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on TSG Hoffenheim v Darmstadt 98?

The most confident call it got wrong was Marius Bülter at 75% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.