TSG Hoffenheim v Hertha BSC
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before TSG Hoffenheim beat Hertha BSC 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Dodi Lukebakio for 1+ fouls drawn (82%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Marco Richter for 1+ fouls drawn (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodi Lukebakio | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Christoph Baumgartner | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Geiger | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kevin-Prince Boateng | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Florian Niederlechner | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Stevan Jovetić | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jessic Ngankam | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Florian Niederlechner | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andrej Kramarić | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ihlas Bebou | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marco Richter | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marco Richter | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Robert Skov | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 53% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 33% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hertha BSC 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on TSG Hoffenheim v Hertha BSC?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on TSG Hoffenheim v Hertha BSC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Marco Richter at 75% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.