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Bundesliga · 24/25

VfL Bochum 1848 v Holstein Kiel

How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

VfL Bochum 18482 – 2 Holstein Kiel 21 Sep 2024
9/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before VfL Bochum 1848 drew with Holstein Kiel 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Philipp Hofmann for 1+ shots total (86%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Myron Boadu for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Martin Petersen refereed this match 4.62cards/game 1.13×vs league 42games
Martin Petersen's card record →
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Philipp Hofmann shots total 1+ 86% 2
Myron Boadu shots total 1+ 82% 0
Moritz Kwarteng shots total 1+ 81% 1
Fiete Arp shots total 1+ 80% 2
Moritz Broschinski shots total 1+ 80% 2
Benedikt Pichler shots total 1+ 80% 2
Ibrahima Sissoko fouls committed 1+ 79% 2
Finn Porath shots total 1+ 78% 0
Benedikt Pichler fouls drawn 1+ 77% 0
Maximilian Wittek shots total 1+ 76% 0
Lukas Daschner shots total 1+ 75% 2
Andu Kelati fouls committed 1+ 72% 0
Finn Porath fouls committed 1+ 72% 1
Matúš Bero fouls committed 1+ 72% 2

How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
Match cards O4.5 79% 5 cards

How these are modelled: Match cards

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Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on VfL Bochum 1848 v Holstein Kiel?

9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on VfL Bochum 1848 v Holstein Kiel?

The most confident call it got wrong was Myron Boadu at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.