VfL Wolfsburg v FC Schalke 04
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before VfL Wolfsburg drew with FC Schalke 04 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Max Kruse for 1+ shots total (86%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Lukas Nmecha for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Nmecha | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Max Kruse | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marius Bülter | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Simon Terodde | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jakub Kamiński | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Omar Marmoush | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
| Maximilian Arnold | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Josuha Guilavogui | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mattias Svanberg | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Florian Flick | shots total | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Danny Latza | shots total | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lukas Nmecha | shots on target | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marius Bülter | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Shots on target · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 36% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 27% | 0 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Schalke 04 0–0 VfL Wolfsburg Feb 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on VfL Wolfsburg v FC Schalke 04?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on VfL Wolfsburg v FC Schalke 04?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lukas Nmecha at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.