Tobias Welz
Over the last 10 Bundesliga games Tobias Welz has officiated, the average is 5.00 cards a match — 22% above the league average of 4.09. That splits 4.9 yellow and 0.1 red a game — a red in 1 of the 10. Home and away sides fare about the same here (2.5 v 2.5 a game), where the league tilts +0.2 toward the away side. 5+ cards landed in 70% of those games (7 of 10), from a 22.7% foul-to-booking rate. Penalties come at about the league's rate: 14 awarded in 44 matches, 0.32 a game against a league average of 0.33. These are raw match figures from those games, not odds.
Match cards last 10 games
Career profile
The two numbers that matter are vs league — the multiplier the model applies to a player's booking chance — and conversion, the share of fouls Tobias Welz turns into bookings. Conversion, not the raw foul count, is where a referee's real card tendency lives. Career figures across every Bundesliga season on record.
| Measure | Welz | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.75 | 4.09 |
| vs league | 1.16× | 1.00× |
| Foul-to-card conversion | 20.6% | 18.5% |
| Fouls / match | 23.1 | 22.1 |
| Penalties awarded / match | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Penalties awarded (total) | 14 in 44 | — |
| Red cards shown | 8 | — |
| Matches on record | 44 (14 in 25/26) | — |
Recent matches
The last 8 Bundesliga games Tobias Welz took charge of — the actual card and foul counts a match-cards line settles on.
| Match | Score | Cards | Y | R | Pen | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt v VfB Stuttgart16 May | 2–2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 26 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen v RB Leipzig2 May | 4–1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| Borussia M'gladbach v 1. FSV Mainz 0519 Apr | 1–1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin v FC St. Pauli5 Apr | 1–1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 |
| Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln14 Mar | 1–1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| FC Augsburg v 1. FC Köln27 Feb | 2–0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| Borussia Dortmund v 1. FSV Mainz 0513 Feb | 4–0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| FC St. Pauli v Hamburger SV23 Jan | 0–0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
Frequently asked
How many cards does Tobias Welz give per game?
Tobias Welz averages 4.75 cards a game across 44 Bundesliga matches — 16% above the league average of 4.09. On a Tobias Welz appointment, the model multiplies every player's booking chance by 1.16.
Is Tobias Welz a strict referee?
Yes. The honest measure is foul-to-card conversion — the share of fouls that become bookings — and Tobias Welz runs at 20.6% against a league average of 18.5%. Foul counts barely vary between officials; the rate at which a foul becomes a booking is where referees genuinely differ.
Does Tobias Welz's record change bet builder card prices?
It should. The referee is the single biggest factor in the to-be-carded market, and the appointment is public before kick-off — so a strict official on a combative player is the archetypal card edge. The player cards guide walks through exactly how the model turns a tendency like this into a price.
How reliable is Tobias Welz's card rate?
It rests on 44 career matches, a solid record. The model shrinks a referee's tendency toward the league average when the sample is thin and discounts its own confidence for officials with young records, so a number like this never gets trusted beyond what the evidence earns.
Rates shown are figures from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, an opponent factor and de-vigging, and discounts its confidence for thin referee records, before flagging any card as value. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.