Borussia M'gladbach v 1. FSV Mainz 05
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Borussia M'gladbach lost to 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Sheraldo Becker for 1+ shots total (93%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Nadiem Amiri for 1+ shots total (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sheraldo Becker | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 5 | ✓ |
| Nadiem Amiri | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isac Lidberg | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Hugo Bolin | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Stefan Posch | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Anthony Caci | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Florian Neuhaus | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joe Scally | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Philipp Sander | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Phillip Tietz | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sheraldo Becker | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Fabio Gruber | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lukas Ullrich | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 65% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 7 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 29% | 11 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Borussia M'gladbach 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 Apr 2026
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Borussia M'gladbach Dec 2025
- Borussia M'gladbach 1–3 1. FSV Mainz 05 Mar 2025
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia M'gladbach Oct 2024
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia M'gladbach Mar 2024
- Borussia M'gladbach 2–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 Oct 2023
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 4–0 Borussia M'gladbach Feb 2023
- Borussia M'gladbach 0–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Borussia M'gladbach v 1. FSV Mainz 05?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Borussia M'gladbach v 1. FSV Mainz 05?
The most confident call it got wrong was Nadiem Amiri at 93% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.