1. FC Union Berlin v Sporting Braga
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before 1. FC Union Berlin lost to Sporting Braga 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Kevin Behrens for 1+ shots total (84%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Rodrigo Zalazar for 1+ shots total (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kevin Volland | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kevin Behrens | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sheraldo Becker | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 6 | ✓ |
| Aissa Laïdouni | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kevin Volland | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kevin Behrens | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kevin Behrens | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Janik Haberer | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aissa Laïdouni | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Diogo Leite | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Janik Haberer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Diogo Leite | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 42% | 6 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 34% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 25% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on 1. FC Union Berlin v Sporting Braga?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on 1. FC Union Berlin v Sporting Braga?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rodrigo Zalazar at 86% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.