AFC Ajax v Galatasaray
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AFC Ajax lost to Galatasaray 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Victor Osimhen for 1+ shots total (98%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Gabriel Sara for 1+ fouls drawn (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Osimhen | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Leroy Sané | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Roland Sallai | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Sara | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Victor Osimhen | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Leroy Sané | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wout Weghorst | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mario Lemina | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ismail Jakobs | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Sara | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Roland Sallai | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Roland Sallai | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Singo | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wout Weghorst | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 66% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 64% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 44% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AFC Ajax 2–1 Galatasaray Jan 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AFC Ajax v Galatasaray?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AFC Ajax v Galatasaray?
The most confident call it got wrong was Gabriel Sara at 78% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.