Arsenal v PSV Eindhoven
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Arsenal drew with PSV Eindhoven 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Mikel Merino for 1+ fouls committed (82%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Leandro Trossard for 1+ shots total (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Merino | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Raheem Sterling | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tyrell Malacia | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Leandro Trossard | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Raheem Sterling | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jorginho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorginho | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leandro Trossard | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mikel Merino | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mikel Merino | shots total | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Riccardo Calafiori | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ivan Perišić | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 2 | ✓ |
| Raheem Sterling | fouls drawn | 1+ | 65% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 64% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 49% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 32% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- PSV Eindhoven 1–7 Arsenal Mar 2025
- PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Arsenal Dec 2023
- Arsenal 4–0 PSV Eindhoven Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Arsenal v PSV Eindhoven?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Arsenal v PSV Eindhoven?
The most confident call it got wrong was Leandro Trossard at 77% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.