AS Monaco v Benfica
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AS Monaco lost to Benfica 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Breel Embolo for 1+ shots total (93%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Eliesse Ben Seghir for 1+ shots total (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliesse Ben Seghir | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mika Biereth | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Breel Embolo | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Takumi Minamino | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Soungoutou Magassa | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vanderson | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Krépin Diatta | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Maghnes Akliouche | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aleksandr Golovin | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Aleksandr Golovin | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leandro Barreiro | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mohammed Salisu | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Álvaro Carreras | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Leandro Barreiro | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 76% | 6 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 74% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 73% | No | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Benfica 3–3 AS Monaco Feb 2025
- AS Monaco 2–3 Benfica Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AS Monaco v Benfica?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AS Monaco v Benfica?
The most confident call it got wrong was Eliesse Ben Seghir at 93% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.