AS Monaco v Paris Saint-Germain
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AS Monaco lost to Paris Saint-Germain 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Khvicha Kvaratskhelia for 1+ shots total (97%, had 8). Its clearest miss: Ousmane Dembélé for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 8 | ✓ |
| Bradley Barcola | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Désiré Doué | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kang-in Lee | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Folarin Balogun | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vanderson | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Krépin Diatta | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lamine Camara | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Coulibaly | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aladji Bamba | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nuno Mendes | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Teze | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 4 | ✓ |
| Désiré Doué | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 73% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 67% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 40% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Paris Saint-Germain 1–2 AS Monaco Sep 2026
- Paris Saint-Germain 1–3 AS Monaco Mar 2026
- Paris Saint-Germain 2–2 AS Monaco Feb 2026
- AS Monaco 1–0 Paris Saint-Germain Nov 2025
- Paris Saint-Germain 4–1 AS Monaco Feb 2025
- AS Monaco 2–4 Paris Saint-Germain Dec 2024
- AS Monaco 0–0 Paris Saint-Germain Mar 2024
- Paris Saint-Germain 5–2 AS Monaco Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AS Monaco v Paris Saint-Germain?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AS Monaco v Paris Saint-Germain?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ousmane Dembélé at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.