Atlético Madrid v FC Barcelona
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Atlético Madrid lost to FC Barcelona 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Lamine Yamal for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Marcus Rashford for 1+ shots total (97%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marcus Rashford | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 0 | ✗ |
| Robert Lewandowski | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ademola Lookman | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Julián Alvarez | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fermín López | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dani Olmo | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ferran Torres | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Antoine Griezmann | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nicolás González | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nahuel Molina | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gavi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marcos Llorente | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 7 | ✓ |
| Koke | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 64% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 63% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Barcelona 0–2 Atlético Madrid Apr 2026
- Atlético Madrid 1–2 FC Barcelona Apr 2026
- FC Barcelona 3–1 Atlético Madrid Dec 2025
- Atlético Madrid 2–4 FC Barcelona Mar 2025
- FC Barcelona 1–2 Atlético Madrid Dec 2024
- Atlético Madrid 0–3 FC Barcelona Mar 2024
- FC Barcelona 1–0 Atlético Madrid Dec 2023
- FC Barcelona 1–0 Atlético Madrid Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Atlético Madrid v FC Barcelona?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Atlético Madrid v FC Barcelona?
The most confident call it got wrong was Marcus Rashford at 97% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.