Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Atlético Madrid beat Real Madrid 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Jude Bellingham for 1+ fouls drawn (81%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Eduardo Camavinga for 1+ fouls drawn (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Camavinga | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jude Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alexander Sørloth | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ángel Correa | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Conor Gallagher | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexander Sørloth | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Reinildo Mandava | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eduardo Camavinga | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ángel Correa | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Julián Alvarez | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 5 | ✓ |
| Conor Gallagher | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 60% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 56% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 28% | 8 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Madrid None–None Atlético Madrid Apr 2027
- Atlético Madrid None–None Real Madrid Sep 2026
- Real Madrid 3–2 Atlético Madrid Mar 2026
- Atlético Madrid 5–2 Real Madrid Sep 2025
- Real Madrid 2–1 Atlético Madrid Mar 2025
- Real Madrid 1–1 Atlético Madrid Feb 2025
- Atlético Madrid 1–1 Real Madrid Sep 2024
- Real Madrid 1–1 Atlético Madrid Feb 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Eduardo Camavinga at 83% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.