Benfica v Real Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Benfica lost to Real Madrid 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Kylian Mbappé for 1+ shots total (98%, had 5). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 6 | ✓ |
| Eduardo Camavinga | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 6 | ✓ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Arda Güler | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Leandro Barreiro | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 4 | ✓ |
| Eduardo Camavinga | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Leandro Barreiro | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 4 | ✓ |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samuel Dahl | tackles | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Álvaro Carreras | tackles | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amar Dedić | tackles | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 71% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 70% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Madrid 2–1 Benfica Feb 2026
- Benfica 4–2 Real Madrid Jan 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Benfica v Real Madrid?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Benfica v Real Madrid?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.