Club Brugge KV v Atlético Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Club Brugge KV drew with Atlético Madrid 3–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Alexander Sørloth for 1+ shots total (97%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Alex Baena for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sørloth | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Antoine Griezmann | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ademola Lookman | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Christos Tzolis | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 5 | ✓ |
| Julián Alvarez | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alex Baena | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mamadou Diakhon | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giuliano Simeone | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alex Baena | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Christos Tzolis | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matteo Ruggeri | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Koke | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Diakhon | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcos Llorente | tackles | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 62% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 21% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Atlético Madrid 4–1 Club Brugge KV Feb 2026
- Atlético Madrid 0–0 Club Brugge KV Oct 2022
- Club Brugge KV 2–0 Atlético Madrid Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Club Brugge KV v Atlético Madrid?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Club Brugge KV v Atlético Madrid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Alex Baena at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.