Eintracht Frankfurt v SSC Napoli
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Eintracht Frankfurt lost to SSC Napoli 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Daichi Kamada for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Hirving Lozano for 1+ fouls drawn (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daichi Kamada | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rafael Borré | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Randal Kolo Muani | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hirving Lozano | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aurélio Buta | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Randal Kolo Muani | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ansgar Knauff | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Victor Osimhen | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Evan Ndicka | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stanislav Lobotka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Victor Osimhen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jesper Lindstrøm | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Randal Kolo Muani | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 76% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 71% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 64% | No | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SSC Napoli 0–0 Eintracht Frankfurt Nov 2025
- SSC Napoli 3–0 Eintracht Frankfurt Mar 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Eintracht Frankfurt v SSC Napoli?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Eintracht Frankfurt v SSC Napoli?
The most confident call it got wrong was Hirving Lozano at 77% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.